The Monthly Bulletin: October 2022

—The exploration of the contours of knowledge and why we think the way we think—

The Non-fiction Feature

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House Trade
Pages: 480 | 2010

theblackswan

The problem is that our ideas are sticky: once we produce a theory, we are not likely to change our minds—so those who delay developing their theories are better off. When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.

thephantomtollbooth
The Children’s Spot
The Phantom Tollbooth
by Norton Juster


“Do you know where we are?” asked Milo.

“Certainly,” he replied, “we’re right here on this very spot. Besides, being lost is never a matter of not knowing where you are; it’s a matter of not knowing where you aren’t–and I don’t care at all about where I’m not.”

foundation

The Product Spot
Foundation (Apple TV+)



The series touches upon many points discussed in The Black Swan–the complexity of knowledge, the difficulty of prediction, the impact of highly improbable events, and the human struggle with all three.